CLAIM: Video of the Russian missile Oreshnik.
VERDICT: The video depicts the launch of the Soyuz 2.1a space rocket carrier on 21/11/2024, carrying the Progress MS-29 resupply spacecraft destined for the ISS.
A video allegedly showing the launch and flight path of Russia’s new weapon “Oreshnik”, went viral on social media.
Example:
On November 21, 2024, it was reported that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), identified by Ukrainian officials as the RS-26 Rubezh, targeting infrastructure in the city of Dnipro, Ukraine. According to statements from a Pentagon spokesperson, the missile that struck the industrial complex in Dnipro was a version of the medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) RS-26 (РС-26 Рубеж), known to NATO as SS-X-31. Vladimir Putin stated that the strike was not carried out with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) but with a new model of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) called “Oreshnik“. The missile was reportedly launched from the Kapustin Yar testing range, about 100 kilometers east of Volgograd in the Astrakhan region.
The video was widely shared on social media accounts, especially X and Telegram. The text visible in the image (video still) reads “Ракета Город Сатпаев 21.11.24,” which translates to “Rocket City of Satpayev 11/21/24”.
Satpayev is a city in central Kazakhstan, located in the Karaganda region.
The distance between Satpayev and the Oreshnik launch site exceeds 1,600 kilometers in a straight line. Satpayev is to the east, whereas the target of the Russian missile in Dnipro, Ukraine, was to the west. However, Satpayev is much closer to the Baikonur Cosmodrome, at a distance of 400 kilometers in a straight line.
More specifically:
On the left, the image shows the launch site of the Oreshnik missile from Kapustin Yar in Russia and the distance to its target in Dnipro, Ukraine (east to west trajectory) of approximately 800 kilometers.
The middle image shows the distance from Satpayev to Kapustin Yar, about 1,600 kilometers.
The right image shows the distance from Satpayev to the Baikonur Cosmodrome (east to southwest) at approximately 400 kilometers. All measurements are in straight-line distances on ground level, not the distance of the ballistic trajectory covered by the missile.
The reason Baikonur Cosmodrome (operated under the control of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos) is mentioned is that many social media users speculated that the video does not show the Oreshnik, but rather the scheduled launch of a Soyuz spacecraft bound for the International Space Station (ISS).
Indeed, on November 21, the same day as the Oreshnik’s deployment, the Soyuz 2.1a space rocket carrier was launched, carrying the Progress MS-29 resupply spacecraft to the ISS. Roscosmos released the video of the launch. In a frame from the video, the northeastern trajectory of the Soyuz 2.1a can be seen, thus making it visible from Satpayev.
Below, you can view the full video of the launch as observed from the ground.
Conclusion
The video shows the launch of the Soyuz 2.1a space rocket carrier on 21/11/2024, carrying the Progress MS-29 resupply spacecraft to the ISS.