Christopher J, Kremidas-Courtney
Senior Visiting Fellow, European Policy Centre
Associate Fellow, Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Senior Lecturer, Institute for Security Governance
In the 21st century, natural disasters are no longer confined to physical destruction. Instead, they operate as flashpoints for another insidious threat: disaster disinformation. As societies grapple with crises, false narratives, conspiracy theories, and disinformation seep into the information ecosystem, delaying recovery, sowing mistrust, and exacerbating human suffering.
Disaster disinformation thrives in the chaotic dynamic of crisis communications. The interplay of uncertainty, heightened anxiety and the rapid spread of unverified information creates fertile ground for disinformation. Social media platforms amplify these narratives through algorithmic biases favoring sensationalism since it leads to higher levels of online engagement, enabling disinformation to spread father and faster than verified facts.
Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), further complicate the landscape. During the 2023 Maui wildfires, AI-generated content was weaponized to propagate claims that the fires were the result of a U.S. “weather weapon.” In 2022 alone, more than 15 billion AI-generated images were published online, and they are now much harder to detect, further complicating people’s ability to discern truth from falsehoods.
Similarly, disinformation blaming the 2024 Valencia floods on geoengineering or HAARP technology shaped narratives in Spain and the rest of Europe, linking natural disasters to broader geopolitical conspiracies that have existed for decades.
The recent coronavirus pandemic was not only a global health disaster, but also the world’s largest and most widespread disinformation event. During the pandemic, internal and external actors promoting false narratives about everything from the virus, vaccines, masks, and protective measure. These patterns illustrate how disaster disinformation operates as both a symptom and a tool of larger systemic disruptions. Now let’s examine the impact of disaster disinformation in recent years and identify solutions.
The Global Landscape of Disaster Disinformation
Kerala Floods (2018): The 2018 floods in Kerala, India, were among the worst in the region’s history, displacing millions and causing widespread devastation. During this crisis, disinformation claiming that a dam was about to burst spread rapidly, exacerbating the challenges faced by both authorities and the affected population. Fabricated weather alerts and evacuation orders also caused confusion, while communal narratives falsely blamed certain religious communities for obstructing relief efforts. Additionally, rumors of contaminated water supplies and exaggerated disease outbreaks disrupted aid distribution and heightened public anxiety. Fraudulent crowdfunding campaigns further diverted resources from legitimate relief initiatives, complicating the recovery process. These factors collectively undermined trust in relief operations and prolonged the recovery period for affected communities.
Australian Bushfires (2019-2020): Disinformation campaigns during the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires claimed the fires were solely caused by arson, downplaying the role of climate change. This narrative gained significant traction and influenced public debates on climate policy, detracting from discussions about mitigation strategies. The emphasis on arson over climate change polarized society, weakened advocacy for stronger climate action, and delayed policy reforms aimed at addressing root causes.
Pakistan Floods (2022): During the catastrophic flooding in Pakistan in 2022, false rumors spread on social media that aid organizations were prioritizing specific ethnic groups. This disinformation disrupted relief efforts and heightened tensions between communities already grappling with the disaster’s severe impact. The resulting mistrust further delayed aid distribution and exacerbated divisions among affected groups.
Syria-Turkey Earthquake (2023): The 2023 Syria-Turkey earthquake saw disinformation spread rapidly through social media and messaging platforms. Claims ranged from exaggerated casualty figures to false accusations about ineffective aid responses. In opposition-controlled regions of Syria, misinformation further complicated rescue operations as fabricated reports created confusion among residents and volunteers. This disinformation diverted resources and delayed aid delivery to those in critical need, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.
Hawaii Wildfires (2023) The 2023 wildfires in Maui serve as a clear example of how quickly disinformation can take root. As the fires devastated communities, conspiracy theories from China claiming the disaster was artificially induced flooded social media. These narratives were fueled by fabricated images and videos, making it challenging for affected residents to discern credible information. This disinformation delayed relief efforts and undermined trust in official communications, leaving residents confused and vulnerable.
Canadian Wildfires (2023): During Canada’s 2023 wildfire season, disinformation shifted public discourse away from climate change. Right-wing groups propagated claims that arson, not environmental factors, was the primary cause of the fires. This narrative gained significant traction on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), despite evidence linking the wildfires to climate-induced factors. As a result, public debates on climate action were derailed, and trust in scientific explanations of the wildfires diminished.
Mozambique Ferry Disaster (2024): In April 2024, the sinking of a ferry in Nampula Province, Mozambique, claimed the lives of over 100 people. Experts found that disinformation about a cholera outbreak drove many passengers to crowd onto the ferry. In addition, disinformation about navigation hazards, and sabotage led to poor decision-making by the ferry operators. In the aftermath, narratives spread that the sinking was deliberately caused to destabilize the region, with some claims accusing foreign actors of sabotage. Disinformation also targeted rescue efforts, alleging mismanagement and corruption among local authorities. In this case, disinformation was not only among the causes of the disaster but also undermined trust in rescue operations, creating delays and public unrest that hampered recovery efforts.
Valencia Floods (2024): The catastrophic floods in Valencia, Spain, in 2024 were accompanied by a surge in disinformation. False claims about emergency services, fabricated emergency contact numbers, and conspiracy theories alleging government negligence undermined public trust. High-profile figures also amplified these narratives, complicating relief efforts. This disinformation slowed down rescue operations and increased frustration among the affected population, complicating coordination among relief agencies.
Hurricanes Helene and Milton (2024): Disinformation also plagued responses to hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States. Rumors circulated on social media claiming FEMA was “running out of funds” or prioritizing undocumented immigrants over American citizens. These falsehoods discouraged some survivors from seeking essential aid. The spread of these rumors caused delays in aid distribution and fostered resentment among affected communities.
Los Angeles Fires (2025): The recent fires in Los Angeles, fueled by high-speed Santa Ana winds, were accompanied by a surge of conspiracy theories. Far right claims emerged that “diversity hires” within the fire department were to blame for the disaster’s scale, overshadowing discussions about resource allocation and climate factors. These narratives not only politicized the event but also diverted attention from pressing issues like fire mitigation and support for displaced residents. This disinformation created divisions within the community and undermined public confidence in the fire department’s capabilities.
COVID-19 and Natural Disasters (2020-Present): The COVID-19 pandemic itself was a global natural disaster due to its immense scale and impact. During the pandemic, misinformation and conspiracy theories were rampant, further complicating responses to concurrent natural disasters. False narratives linked natural disasters like cyclones and floods to alleged pandemic-related conspiracies, such as governments using disasters to enforce lockdowns or divert attention from systemic failures. Social media platforms amplified claims that COVID-19 was being spread deliberately through relief camps or by specific communities, inciting fear and hostility.
Moreover, public health responses were undermined by disinformation about vaccines and treatment methods. This hindered vaccination efforts in disaster-affected regions, where already-strained healthcare systems were further burdened by skepticism and disinformation. The cumulative effect was a reduced capacity to respond effectively to both the pandemic and natural disasters, leaving vulnerable populations even more exposed to harm.
Consequences of Disaster Disinformation
As these examples illustrate, disinformation during disasters often exploits public anxiety and societal divisions, deploying false narratives to undermine trust and delay relief efforts. A common tactic is promoting conspiracy theories, such as attributing disasters to intentional acts like geoengineering or government negligence. During the Valencia floods, false claims about emergency services and fabricated emergency contact numbers spread rapidly, while conspiracy theories alleging government negligence complicated relief efforts and eroded trust in official responses. Similarly, during the Los Angeles fires, narratives blaming “diversity hires” in the fire department overshadowed critical discussions about resource allocation and fire mitigation, further polarizing communities.
We’ve also seen how disaster disinformation undermines trust in authorities and relief organizations. Disinformation actors spread rumors of mismanagement, favoritism, and corruption, as seen in the Mozambique ferry disaster and Pakistan floods, where claims of biased aid distribution fueled tensions and delayed recovery. These efforts often exacerbate societal divisions by targeting specific ethnic or social groups, as well as amplifying fears through exaggerated casualty figures, fabricated evacuation orders, or false health warnings. For example, during the Kerala floods, rumors of contaminated water supplies and disease outbreaks disrupted aid distribution and heightened public anxiety.
These narratives not only create confusion and mistrust but also distract from addressing the root causes of disasters and implementing effective responses. By polarizing societies and diverting resources toward debunking false claims, disinformation actors significantly compound the challenges of disaster response, leaving impacted communities more vulnerable to extended recovery periods.
When survivors doubt the credibility of first responders and official communications, they may hesitate to seek assistance, jeopardizing their rescue and recovery. Finally, disinformation can heighten societal divisions at a time when the population feels most vulnerable. By politicizing disaster narratives, bad-faith actors exacerbate existing tensions and undermine collective action.
Messaging applications like WhatsApp play a dual role in disaster and conflict situations, serving as both a vital communication tool and a channel for disinformation. In areas like Syria, it has been a lifeline, enabling emergency responders such as the White Helmets to coordinate rescue efforts and communicate with civilians when traditional emergency systems are unavailable. The application’s ability to function in areas with poor connectivity, thanks to its compression algorithm, makes it indispensable in crisis zones. However, this accessibility also allows it to become a vehicle for disinformation, as malicious actors exploit its widespread use to spread false narratives, incite panic, and even coordinate violence, as observed in conflicts in Sudan and Somalia. This dual nature underscores the need for approaches that harness WhatsApp’s benefits while mitigating its risks during crises.
According to Irina Novakova, head of NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center, “foreign and domestic actors exploit emergencies to pursue their own agendas – including to undermine trust in government and responders, to distract and create chaos, exploit social tensions and spread conspiracy theories. This weaponization of disasters is a major security concern, one that NATO and Allies are taking seriously. We need to get better at understanding the problem, learning from each other’s solutions, strengthening our capacities to respond.”
Recommendations to Combat Disaster Disinformation
Don’t repeat the disinformation narrative. Official and nonofficial actors seeking to debunk false narratives too often make the mistake of repeating the narrative just before debunking it during a press conference or other media engagement. This not only serves to legitimize the false narrative but also creates opportunities for bad faith actors to edit video of the press conference so they can show public officials confirming the disinformation narrative.
Tell the truth, especially when its inconvenient. There is danger when governments dismiss inconvenient truths, especially when mistakes are made during crisis response. Taking this approach can erode public trust and strengthen disinformation narratives which are often built on a small grain of truth. When governments lie or cover up mistakes during an emergency, it only discredits the truthful information meant to keep citizens safe. So, its far better to be honest and forthright if we are failing or inadequately performing since public trust is easy to lose and incredibly difficult to win back again.Tell the truth, especially when its inconvenient. There is danger when governments dismiss inconvenient truths, especially when mistakes are made during crisis response. Taking this approach can erode public trust and strengthen disinformation narratives which are often built on a small grain of truth. When governments lie or cover up mistakes during an emergency, it only discredits the truthful information meant to keep citizens safe. So, its far better to be honest and forthright if we are failing or ADEQUATELY performing since public trust is easy to lose and incredibly difficult to win back again.
Outreach and proactive communications. Getting strategic communications right during a crisis cannot make the problem smaller but getting it wrong can make the crisis even worse. Getting strategic communications right starts with preparing the public and preparing the whole-of-society enterprise group of communicators who will inform the public during a mass casualty situation. Government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must prioritize proactive and transparent communication well before any crisis occurs. Best practices such as distributing booklets to every citizen explaining emergency procedures, and frequent “open house” events, and community engagement in each neighborhood have proven to be among the best forms of “pre-bunking.” These methods make people feel more connected to responses forces, helps them better understand how the response system works (and how they can help, and finally makes them less likely to believe disaster disinformation.
Harness the power of mobile phone messaging applications, or they’ll be harnessed against you. Globally, WhatsApp is the most widely used channel for citizens to find and share disaster information during a crisis. They are also a major means of spreading disinformation. Instead of ceding this ground to malign actors, governments and civil society groups should follow the example of the United Nations and various humanitarian organizations and make messaging applications part of their information strategies. Giving people a fact-based choice on the platform they are most likely to use, monitoring and debunking disinformation on these platforms, and regulating the spread of dangerous falsehoods on them can mitigate some of their worst impacts.
Build a whole-of-society (WOS) network of information first responders: Getting the narrative right is only half the battle when dealing with strategic communications and combatting disinformation. In the same way we have first responders for various emergencies, we also need our own information first responders. The information first responder model leverages the higher trust the public has in local community leaders to help deliver strategic communications messages and debunk disinformation. Numerous surveys show that local leaders are the most trusted in society so finding way to work with them and leverage this trust can help to deliver key messages to the people before, during, and after a crisis. They can be formal or informal local leaders to include religious clergy, local club leaders, shop owners, or local officials. This “all resilience is local” model had been used successfully in Ukraine, Brazil, Sweden, and in online communities since 2017.
Fact-checking and education. Fact-checking organizations play a crucial role in combating disinformation. Collaborations between fact-checking NGOs, media, and governments have successfully debunked false narratives during wildfires and floods. Public education campaigns can also enhance media literacy, equipping individuals to critically evaluate information.
Regulation and accountability. A whole-of-society approach also means seeking to collaborate with media and social media platforms to curb the spread of disaster disinformation. Content moderation, algorithm adjustments, and partnerships with fact-checkers can limit the visibility of false claims. Legal frameworks must ensure that media and social media companies that do not monitor and thwart disinformation from spreading through their platforms must be held accountable for the damage they can cause during these crises.
Build disinformation and misinformation into whole-of-society risk assessments and resilience exercises. Intentional disinformation and accidental misinformationare part of very crisis we face today so we must collectively practice addressing them in exercises and risk assessments. To build the partnerships and collective ability to address these crises more effectively, we must also invite information first responders, the private sector, civil society, and media representatives to participate in risk assessments and resilience exercises.
Exercises allow stakeholders to gain a new understanding of each other’s mandates and perspectives and can identify previously unseen areas for mutual support. More importantly, sharing information and exercising together allows them to build trusted relationships early rather than seeking to establish them during a crisis. This is critically important because you can’t surge trust.
Building these partnerships enables early detection and more effective response to crises, plus it creates an information network that is more trusted by the people within their communities.
Toward a Resilient Future
Disaster disinformation is a formidable challenge that compounds the difficulties of responding to natural and manmade disasters. Its spread undermines trust, delays response, and exacerbates societal divides that can slow recovery. Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted approach that includes clear and proactive communication, building a network of information first responders, robust fact-checking, regulatory interventions, and building a whole-of-society approach through common risk assessments and exercises. By investing in this approach, societies can better withstand the dual challenges of natural disasters and the disinformation that often accompanies them.